* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/10/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 85 82 77 66 55 45 38 31 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 87 85 82 77 66 55 45 38 31 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 85 80 76 72 64 57 51 46 42 37 32 27 SHEAR (KT) 8 11 18 17 19 22 26 22 24 32 42 40 30 SHEAR DIR 231 187 221 206 215 194 222 212 219 219 238 236 243 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 122 120 118 117 116 114 115 115 114 114 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 115 111 109 107 105 103 102 103 104 103 102 104 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -53.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 65 62 59 63 52 47 40 38 36 39 39 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 24 22 21 20 20 17 16 15 14 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 7 1 0 10 22 27 53 45 71 38 35 -2 13 200 MB DIV 60 80 52 37 22 31 -6 -2 39 20 -6 0 -9 LAND (KM) 1803 1836 1871 1879 1889 1878 1809 1768 1765 1825 1964 2116 2269 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.3 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.8 21.0 22.6 23.3 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 34.3 34.6 34.9 35.0 35.0 34.8 34.1 33.8 33.9 34.6 36.0 37.5 39.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 5 8 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 7 6 5 4 5 4 4 2 1 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -16. -24. -29. -33. -36. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -14. -14. -15. -18. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -13. -24. -35. -45. -52. -59. -67. -75. -78. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/10/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)