* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/10/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 72 68 55 40 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 72 68 55 40 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 71 68 64 53 43 34 28 23 19 17 DIS SHEAR (KT) 17 21 17 18 25 21 24 26 27 20 18 17 11 SHEAR DIR 190 197 210 195 204 217 214 240 257 274 274 285 285 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.4 26.0 25.5 24.8 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.1 23.0 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 126 122 117 109 102 98 96 94 89 87 88 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 60 60 56 49 46 41 32 31 26 26 27 26 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 19 19 14 11 8 8 6 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 60 57 54 41 21 0 -19 -38 -39 -46 -78 -129 200 MB DIV 61 25 8 50 19 2 -7 -11 -40 -27 -11 -17 -17 LAND (KM) 1868 1859 1854 1857 1862 1876 1879 1852 1831 1789 1725 1709 1724 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.7 21.7 22.3 22.7 23.2 23.9 24.1 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 129.4 129.9 130.3 130.7 131.1 131.8 132.7 133.1 133.3 133.3 133.2 133.2 133.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 3 3 3 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. -3. -7. -11. -12. -15. -18. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. -2. -15. -30. -44. -55. -65. -72. -78. -81. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/10/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/10/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY