* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/10/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 68 62 54 42 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 74 68 62 54 42 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 74 68 63 59 51 45 40 34 29 23 19 16 SHEAR (KT) 24 22 24 22 31 27 29 34 36 43 40 42 36 SHEAR DIR 230 218 211 217 219 216 212 219 221 231 232 248 254 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 115 114 114 115 115 115 114 115 118 121 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 106 103 101 101 103 103 103 103 104 108 110 110 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 55 55 52 44 41 44 45 46 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 21 20 18 17 16 17 14 12 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 3 18 29 26 32 58 35 55 38 24 17 1 -27 200 MB DIV 54 56 15 19 -8 -10 4 7 27 -2 18 -18 -11 LAND (KM) 1897 1917 1937 1934 1932 1893 1840 1836 1898 2050 2275 2382 2428 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.3 19.0 19.9 21.0 21.8 22.2 23.3 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 35.1 35.3 35.4 35.4 35.3 34.9 34.5 34.6 35.3 36.8 39.0 41.0 42.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 7 9 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 5 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -22. -25. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -22. -24. -26. -28. -31. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -26. -38. -50. -58. -67. -76. -83. -88. -89. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/10/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072009 FRED 09/10/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY