* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/10/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 67 62 56 40 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 69 67 62 56 40 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 69 66 61 56 45 36 30 26 22 20 18 15 SHEAR (KT) 15 18 26 23 23 22 22 23 19 21 18 19 12 SHEAR DIR 211 188 201 210 218 208 238 251 256 240 232 237 255 SST (C) 26.2 25.7 25.1 24.7 24.4 24.1 24.0 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 119 113 108 104 101 99 97 94 93 91 91 88 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 52 47 43 40 37 32 28 25 26 20 20 19 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 19 16 15 11 8 8 6 5 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 67 55 42 32 7 -13 -27 -14 -17 -36 -72 -113 200 MB DIV 19 42 27 8 -2 -7 6 -27 -15 -29 5 -18 -7 LAND (KM) 1809 1803 1801 1805 1812 1838 1848 1840 1835 1817 1800 1784 1760 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.7 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 130.0 130.4 130.8 131.2 131.5 132.2 132.9 133.3 133.6 133.7 133.8 133.8 133.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -21. -26. -29. -31. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -13. -16. -17. -23. -23. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -8. -14. -30. -42. -52. -62. -68. -77. -80. -80. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/10/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/10/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY