* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/11/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 64 57 50 38 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 70 64 57 50 38 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 70 65 60 56 49 44 39 34 30 25 21 18 SHEAR (KT) 19 19 21 28 26 26 30 28 33 39 43 36 29 SHEAR DIR 223 229 226 213 207 213 204 223 232 235 228 248 254 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 115 114 114 114 114 116 116 117 120 122 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 104 102 101 101 101 102 105 106 108 111 111 112 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 59 55 54 51 49 44 38 43 44 42 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 21 20 17 16 15 17 14 12 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 12 22 25 26 37 46 56 65 58 45 28 21 10 200 MB DIV 44 23 12 4 -20 -12 9 31 14 6 -8 -10 -59 LAND (KM) 1898 1901 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1954 2038 2202 2228 2146 2078 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.5 19.6 20.6 21.4 21.9 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.5 36.5 38.2 40.7 42.9 44.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 0 0 0 2 6 8 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 7 12 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -8. -11. -16. -19. -20. -21. -23. -26. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -18. -25. -37. -46. -52. -58. -65. -73. -77. -79. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/11/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072009 FRED 09/11/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY