* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/11/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 49 41 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 55 49 41 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 54 49 44 40 32 26 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 24 26 24 19 25 21 23 17 19 7 17 17 SHEAR DIR 190 204 214 222 217 230 252 275 288 287 242 213 214 SST (C) 25.8 25.3 24.8 24.5 24.2 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 115 109 106 102 98 97 96 95 93 92 91 89 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 47 43 42 38 34 31 28 27 26 23 21 20 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 16 13 12 11 8 7 6 4 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 50 37 26 7 -10 -31 -39 -31 -51 -67 -99 -131 200 MB DIV 35 18 -3 -13 -6 1 -21 -9 -22 -14 -10 -10 6 LAND (KM) 1803 1799 1797 1810 1823 1809 1817 1820 1809 1798 1809 1785 1739 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.2 22.4 22.6 22.8 23.1 23.3 23.6 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 130.3 130.7 131.0 131.4 131.8 132.3 132.7 133.0 133.1 133.3 133.7 133.7 133.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -23. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -15. -18. -20. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -19. -25. -37. -48. -57. -64. -70. -74. -78. -77. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/11/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/11/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY