* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/11/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 65 57 51 42 34 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 71 65 57 51 42 34 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 71 67 62 58 51 45 40 35 30 26 21 18 SHEAR (KT) 21 20 29 29 29 24 29 29 36 39 40 36 39 SHEAR DIR 225 212 208 210 210 197 210 221 233 229 231 239 261 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 116 116 115 113 114 114 115 116 117 119 123 123 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 103 102 100 100 101 103 106 108 110 113 113 112 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 56 57 53 56 50 44 40 45 42 44 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 21 18 18 19 18 14 13 11 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 30 34 55 65 77 70 59 47 48 26 11 200 MB DIV 8 27 11 -15 -12 56 9 7 3 19 -2 -10 -11 LAND (KM) 1914 1905 1897 1898 1899 1879 1888 1967 2140 2277 2163 2121 2077 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.7 19.5 20.6 21.3 21.8 22.5 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 35.1 35.0 35.0 35.0 34.8 34.9 35.8 37.6 39.8 42.4 44.6 46.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 0 1 1 4 8 10 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 10 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -21. -22. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -21. -23. -25. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -18. -24. -33. -41. -51. -59. -66. -73. -76. -78. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/11/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072009 FRED 09/11/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED