* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/11/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 64 57 52 42 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 71 64 57 52 42 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 68 64 59 52 46 41 36 32 27 24 22 SHEAR (KT) 24 26 27 26 25 32 24 30 33 34 31 30 27 SHEAR DIR 218 209 195 201 198 196 213 215 231 225 231 236 265 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 115 115 115 115 116 116 117 120 123 126 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 102 102 101 101 102 104 107 109 110 113 118 119 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 50 48 41 40 43 41 40 40 38 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 20 18 18 21 18 16 15 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 42 60 67 74 83 75 73 57 56 35 21 200 MB DIV 11 4 3 20 28 24 15 19 30 1 10 -28 1 LAND (KM) 1897 1882 1867 1858 1848 1843 1884 2017 2234 2204 2131 2045 1818 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.6 20.5 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 35.0 34.9 34.7 34.6 34.5 34.4 34.9 36.3 38.5 40.8 43.0 45.8 48.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 1 2 5 9 11 11 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 8 12 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -20. -22. -22. -24. -25. -26. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -4. -5. -6. -9. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -18. -23. -33. -42. -49. -55. -61. -66. -69. -70. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/11/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)