* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/11/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 53 48 43 36 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 59 53 48 43 36 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 60 56 52 49 44 39 34 30 26 22 20 19 SHEAR (KT) 26 27 25 24 28 26 23 33 34 34 19 24 15 SHEAR DIR 217 204 210 205 199 223 227 233 231 244 247 259 276 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 115 115 115 116 115 116 119 122 124 127 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 101 101 102 102 103 105 108 110 113 115 118 120 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 50 50 46 49 42 42 48 47 48 46 44 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 18 18 18 20 16 16 13 10 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 33 51 65 72 77 79 70 65 36 38 16 13 -1 200 MB DIV 8 7 16 18 22 6 16 9 32 -15 3 -19 6 LAND (KM) 1867 1857 1846 1838 1829 1838 1920 2095 2263 2167 2096 1968 1697 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.6 19.2 20.0 20.9 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 34.7 34.6 34.5 34.4 34.3 34.4 35.3 37.1 39.5 42.0 44.5 47.3 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 3 7 11 12 12 12 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 5 10 14 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -15. -17. -19. -22. -24. -24. -23. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -5. -5. -7. -10. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -22. -29. -38. -44. -50. -57. -57. -58. -56. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/11/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)