* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/12/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 42 39 37 32 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 45 42 39 37 32 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 42 40 38 35 32 29 25 21 19 18 18 SHEAR (KT) 22 19 18 25 25 23 30 34 33 19 23 18 13 SHEAR DIR 206 206 198 180 203 215 223 237 235 256 237 274 272 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 115 116 116 116 116 117 121 123 125 128 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 102 101 102 104 105 107 109 112 114 116 119 122 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 52 51 47 46 44 38 42 45 45 41 41 40 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 19 20 16 16 13 13 11 10 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 57 66 67 76 89 67 71 38 34 21 18 6 -11 200 MB DIV -10 9 10 54 71 4 12 15 -13 -10 -45 13 -19 LAND (KM) 1761 1751 1742 1755 1768 1842 1975 2173 2221 2136 2094 1903 1644 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.6 23.4 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 33.6 33.5 33.6 33.7 34.5 35.9 37.9 40.4 42.9 45.4 48.2 51.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 3 6 9 11 12 12 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 7 12 14 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -7. -8. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -13. -18. -23. -29. -33. -35. -37. -35. -32. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/12/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)