* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/12/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 27 28 26 25 26 25 19 23 21 22 11 17 14 SHEAR DIR 214 218 232 246 253 272 265 280 287 274 261 258 247 SST (C) 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.6 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 108 106 105 105 104 102 101 100 100 98 96 95 93 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 31 31 28 25 24 24 25 25 24 25 21 24 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 7 -6 -10 -17 -34 -36 -60 -83 -97 -117 -115 -107 200 MB DIV -21 -13 -5 -10 -33 -18 -15 -4 -2 -4 0 -17 -6 LAND (KM) 1843 1869 1896 1917 1937 1959 1979 1975 1979 1974 1970 1976 1954 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.6 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.4 22.9 23.4 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 131.5 131.9 132.3 132.8 133.2 133.8 134.1 134.3 134.6 135.0 135.5 136.1 136.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -16. -25. -32. -41. -48. -53. -55. -55. -52. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/12/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/12/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY