* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/12/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 35 33 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 35 33 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 37 35 33 30 28 24 20 17 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 21 21 23 24 20 25 31 38 34 20 21 8 10 SHEAR DIR 211 206 194 199 213 215 232 231 236 237 256 294 311 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 116 116 117 117 118 116 116 119 122 124 126 132 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 102 104 105 107 106 107 111 113 115 116 121 127 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 51 48 46 43 40 38 40 43 44 40 45 43 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 19 18 17 15 13 11 10 12 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 71 69 67 83 85 63 58 33 26 12 14 -9 -34 200 MB DIV 13 8 21 65 57 18 -19 16 -28 7 -19 5 -5 LAND (KM) 1759 1749 1738 1770 1801 1897 2072 2301 2229 2167 1980 1730 1532 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.8 17.8 18.1 18.4 19.3 20.1 21.1 22.2 23.0 23.3 24.1 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 33.6 33.5 33.8 34.0 35.1 36.9 39.2 41.9 44.7 47.4 50.2 52.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 4 6 8 11 13 13 13 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 5 9 12 14 17 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -18. -19. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -12. -15. -21. -28. -34. -35. -33. -29. -24. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/12/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)