* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/12/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 34 31 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 34 31 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 33 31 30 27 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 24 24 23 24 38 39 42 25 23 10 11 15 SHEAR DIR 197 190 196 210 215 216 219 218 237 224 296 311 356 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 118 118 118 117 117 121 124 126 129 135 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 104 105 108 109 109 109 114 116 116 118 125 130 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 47 47 44 41 39 40 40 41 40 41 44 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 17 16 15 14 13 11 11 12 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 63 60 78 81 67 64 44 29 20 9 8 -5 -9 200 MB DIV 9 21 57 58 49 16 23 7 4 -24 10 -10 -11 LAND (KM) 1754 1746 1738 1798 1848 2038 2223 2227 2154 2050 1829 1589 1371 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.6 20.6 21.6 22.5 23.3 23.9 24.6 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 33.6 33.5 34.0 34.5 36.5 38.4 41.0 43.9 46.7 49.1 51.9 54.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 6 8 11 11 14 14 12 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 8 12 13 16 23 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -16. -20. -21. -20. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -11. -17. -24. -30. -34. -35. -31. -25. -20. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/12/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)