* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/12/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 28 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 27 26 23 20 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 22 26 24 25 29 34 34 24 11 14 6 15 11 SHEAR DIR 193 201 219 223 214 223 219 240 221 261 315 320 51 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 117 118 118 117 120 124 126 128 133 138 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 106 108 109 110 111 115 117 117 120 122 123 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 47 45 44 40 39 43 42 43 42 45 46 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 14 15 14 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 65 76 78 72 69 72 44 31 10 -4 -18 -30 -44 200 MB DIV 19 43 25 57 24 -1 20 -28 4 -31 -2 -20 14 LAND (KM) 1756 1765 1775 1851 1915 2137 2282 2207 2119 1902 1706 1571 1534 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.9 21.2 22.2 22.9 23.7 24.7 25.7 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 33.8 33.8 34.5 35.2 37.5 39.6 42.3 45.5 48.3 50.7 52.7 54.0 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 8 10 12 12 14 14 13 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 4 4 3 5 9 13 16 20 28 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -13. -14. -12. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -12. -18. -20. -20. -19. -15. -12. -8. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/12/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)