* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972009 09/14/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 47 49 47 44 40 38 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 47 49 47 44 40 38 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 35 33 31 28 26 SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 5 7 11 17 23 31 25 35 31 33 SHEAR DIR 7 26 181 220 243 258 288 279 279 275 259 252 257 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.2 25.6 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 156 155 154 150 144 137 131 123 117 113 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 67 63 57 56 49 46 48 43 43 43 37 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 20 4 7 4 21 36 54 56 55 47 32 200 MB DIV 60 83 73 70 70 33 25 10 18 -1 -5 -11 -15 LAND (KM) 416 455 509 568 545 552 579 562 521 481 486 537 574 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.2 19.0 19.8 20.5 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.2 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 108.4 109.4 110.5 111.5 113.3 114.5 115.2 115.7 115.9 116.5 117.3 118.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 8 6 4 4 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 50 40 22 38 40 39 18 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 2. -2. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 24. 22. 19. 15. 13. 10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972009 INVEST 09/14/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972009 INVEST 09/14/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY