* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972009 09/15/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 26 30 33 36 37 38 37 29 21 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 26 30 33 36 37 38 37 29 21 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 27 24 21 18 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 5 7 6 10 17 14 31 24 38 37 41 SHEAR DIR 71 98 158 216 211 253 286 242 250 239 235 238 237 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.5 27.8 26.9 26.0 25.2 24.6 24.1 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 151 151 148 140 130 121 113 107 101 98 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 62 61 58 53 51 52 48 49 47 47 44 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 11 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 -2 3 4 15 30 40 36 38 22 -4 -38 200 MB DIV 22 19 26 25 26 24 4 6 5 19 5 -14 -17 LAND (KM) 550 531 502 497 504 519 484 407 379 394 405 424 483 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.4 20.2 21.1 22.1 22.9 23.7 24.4 25.0 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 111.0 111.8 112.5 113.1 114.1 114.8 115.0 115.4 116.0 116.9 117.9 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 36 36 34 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 2. -2. -7. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 4. -4. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972009 INVEST 09/15/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972009 INVEST 09/15/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED