* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/15/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 44 48 51 52 54 56 58 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 44 48 51 52 54 56 58 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 41 45 48 51 54 57 61 63 SHEAR (KT) 14 13 14 13 13 20 21 22 18 19 17 21 23 SHEAR DIR 251 259 313 348 356 356 27 18 41 5 353 309 292 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 137 138 140 143 139 136 136 140 144 145 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 129 131 132 134 129 125 124 126 129 130 131 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 35 36 43 45 43 45 47 44 43 46 50 53 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 23 22 10 -16 -40 -57 -53 -47 -31 -41 -21 200 MB DIV 13 -20 -5 10 0 -18 -6 -17 -5 2 -7 -18 -4 LAND (KM) 1784 1759 1680 1594 1451 1183 956 781 680 674 614 616 606 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.6 23.3 23.8 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 46.7 48.0 49.3 50.8 52.3 55.3 58.2 61.0 63.6 66.0 68.2 70.2 72.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 14 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 28 29 32 43 39 34 30 33 45 31 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):283/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 21. 22. 24. 26. 28. 29. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/15/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072009 FRED 09/15/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY