* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162009 09/16/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 38 41 45 48 47 43 36 28 21 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 38 41 45 48 47 43 36 28 21 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 39 41 40 38 35 31 27 22 SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 7 11 14 17 25 25 31 40 37 37 SHEAR DIR 152 151 187 188 249 276 242 246 241 243 228 234 223 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.2 26.5 25.8 25.5 24.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 149 148 144 140 133 126 118 115 108 106 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 46 47 48 47 52 51 49 44 42 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -2 2 0 16 28 39 45 20 2 -22 -41 -43 200 MB DIV 22 9 6 5 6 10 19 51 14 -6 -11 -4 -15 LAND (KM) 553 530 509 490 472 423 362 297 215 149 125 154 147 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.4 21.2 22.1 23.0 23.9 24.5 25.1 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 112.7 112.9 113.0 113.0 113.1 113.0 113.0 113.1 113.4 113.5 113.8 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 4 3 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 43 42 40 37 33 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 0. -5. -10. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 18. 17. 13. 6. -2. -9. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162009 SIXTEEN 09/16/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162009 SIXTEEN 09/16/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY