* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162009 09/16/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 40 44 45 41 37 28 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 40 44 45 41 37 28 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 37 37 36 32 29 25 21 16 SHEAR (KT) 6 4 7 9 12 12 25 26 27 27 40 35 35 SHEAR DIR 143 191 191 253 275 257 244 251 244 221 233 226 240 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.4 26.7 26.4 25.6 24.6 23.7 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 147 146 144 136 127 124 117 107 98 82 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 7 6 7 6 7 4 700-500 MB RH 57 51 49 48 48 47 48 52 50 46 41 38 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -3 2 0 16 20 24 51 31 5 -11 -35 -45 -17 200 MB DIV 8 5 7 7 -2 18 23 45 -1 -14 -10 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 519 495 473 456 441 401 342 287 269 217 201 129 34 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.6 21.8 22.5 22.8 23.6 24.8 25.9 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.5 112.6 112.7 112.8 113.0 113.3 113.6 113.8 114.0 114.3 114.5 114.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 3 3 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 34 31 27 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 21. 21. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 15. 11. 7. -2. -9. -17. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162009 SIXTEEN 09/16/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162009 SIXTEEN 09/16/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED