* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP162009 09/17/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 43 43 45 47 41 39 31 25 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 43 43 45 47 41 39 31 25 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 45 46 46 44 40 34 29 24 19 16 SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 11 8 21 20 28 25 29 27 30 32 SHEAR DIR 114 180 275 262 236 251 251 252 230 234 226 244 244 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.3 26.7 25.9 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 147 147 142 135 128 120 116 113 110 107 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 47 48 48 48 47 40 36 32 28 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 10 12 10 10 8 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -7 8 13 22 28 47 28 9 -13 -33 -43 -52 -43 200 MB DIV -2 12 10 8 11 -3 14 -13 -34 1 -10 -8 -17 LAND (KM) 506 494 482 470 461 440 400 390 399 463 510 613 767 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.9 21.7 22.3 23.0 23.4 23.7 23.7 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.1 113.3 113.7 114.3 115.0 115.7 116.6 117.6 119.1 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 36 34 30 24 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -8. -12. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 1. -1. -9. -15. -23. -30. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162009 MARTY 09/17/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162009 MARTY 09/17/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY