* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP162009 09/17/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 41 42 39 34 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 41 42 39 34 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 41 41 39 36 32 26 21 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 4 10 11 11 18 20 29 30 36 27 35 37 45 SHEAR DIR 215 261 261 238 236 250 230 234 225 236 243 253 250 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.3 26.3 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.7 24.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 144 142 135 125 116 111 108 107 106 103 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 43 46 45 43 46 46 42 39 35 33 28 24 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 18 27 29 43 54 32 17 -8 -35 -48 -48 -44 -39 200 MB DIV 11 10 8 5 15 4 0 -6 12 -10 5 0 -15 LAND (KM) 476 452 431 417 408 375 345 369 420 444 490 572 710 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.8 22.7 23.4 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 112.9 113.0 113.2 113.4 114.0 114.8 115.6 116.3 117.1 117.9 119.1 120.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 4 4 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 28 19 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -6. -13. -20. -26. -34. -42. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162009 MARTY 09/17/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162009 MARTY 09/17/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY