* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP162009 09/17/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 42 41 37 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 42 41 37 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 41 41 40 36 30 24 19 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 4 9 9 15 16 24 35 35 34 29 36 38 46 SHEAR DIR 150 226 200 235 239 227 232 228 242 236 247 238 240 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 26.9 25.9 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.5 24.3 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 144 142 131 120 114 112 109 105 103 101 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 41 43 46 45 43 40 40 38 36 33 27 24 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 38 63 55 23 6 -28 -45 -41 -43 -39 -36 200 MB DIV -3 -2 -1 0 -6 5 -4 -10 9 -20 -4 -17 -8 LAND (KM) 489 466 446 443 441 407 407 459 491 528 551 632 733 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.7 21.1 22.1 23.0 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.2 24.2 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.1 113.2 113.6 113.9 115.0 115.8 116.6 117.3 118.1 118.8 119.9 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 7 5 4 3 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 29 20 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -12. -17. -21. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -18. -24. -34. -40. -46. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162009 MARTY 09/17/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162009 MARTY 09/17/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED