* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982009 09/17/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 28 32 40 48 54 56 57 56 57 56 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 28 32 40 48 54 56 57 56 57 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 30 33 36 38 39 40 42 43 SHEAR (KT) 2 10 12 9 10 5 8 14 14 17 17 17 16 SHEAR DIR 69 62 82 81 115 185 235 223 232 226 228 225 223 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 166 165 164 160 155 151 149 148 148 148 143 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 16 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 62 61 64 60 64 62 60 53 51 46 47 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -25 -22 -35 -45 -47 -58 -51 -63 -37 -47 -21 -25 200 MB DIV 1 32 54 23 18 -35 5 6 3 18 -11 2 -17 LAND (KM) 173 172 167 155 157 126 160 251 195 138 99 78 56 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.8 19.8 20.7 21.6 22.1 22.4 22.5 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.9 103.6 104.3 104.9 106.0 107.1 108.1 108.7 108.9 109.1 109.3 110.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 2 1 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 65 56 50 51 56 52 42 31 25 23 23 23 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -1. 5. 13. 23. 31. 35. 38. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 20. 28. 34. 36. 37. 36. 37. 36. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982009 INVEST 09/17/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982009 INVEST 09/17/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED