* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP162009 09/18/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 40 38 32 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 40 38 32 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 39 37 32 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 16 17 20 20 32 30 33 30 30 36 40 49 SHEAR DIR 212 238 241 242 224 247 227 238 246 257 250 243 242 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.7 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.0 24.5 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 144 140 130 124 120 117 114 111 106 100 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 46 46 44 44 42 41 37 35 30 30 26 25 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 68 64 55 33 20 -4 -24 -28 -31 -32 -46 -26 200 MB DIV 16 1 -3 4 0 -13 -22 6 -19 -23 -24 -3 2 LAND (KM) 492 497 506 503 491 506 592 672 740 801 879 951 1017 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.8 21.2 22.1 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.7 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 113.8 114.1 114.6 115.1 116.3 117.5 118.5 119.5 120.4 121.5 122.6 123.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 26 16 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -16. -22. -28. -34. -40. -45. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162009 MARTY 09/18/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162009 MARTY 09/18/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY