* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982009 09/18/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 29 32 36 38 39 39 39 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 29 32 36 38 39 39 39 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 32 SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 17 14 10 11 11 12 12 19 18 23 SHEAR DIR 233 225 215 201 201 194 201 205 214 212 230 226 241 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 136 134 134 134 134 134 135 133 134 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 130 130 128 127 126 125 126 127 124 125 124 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 53 57 61 60 57 62 55 56 53 54 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 86 84 82 72 59 33 18 6 9 12 12 8 4 200 MB DIV -6 -9 -12 6 16 6 -7 -5 -18 13 0 17 0 LAND (KM) 1732 1674 1619 1573 1532 1477 1433 1373 1308 1271 1256 1231 1155 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.3 40.0 40.8 41.5 43.0 44.3 45.6 46.9 48.5 50.0 51.4 52.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 20 21 22 25 25 27 29 35 44 50 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982009 INVEST 09/18/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982009 INVEST 09/18/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED