* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/18/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 44 48 50 52 55 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 44 48 50 52 55 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 42 45 48 51 54 SHEAR (KT) 20 16 15 16 12 11 19 23 22 25 20 22 18 SHEAR DIR 25 24 14 17 12 323 307 299 311 311 324 315 304 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.2 28.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 142 143 142 143 144 144 147 152 154 147 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 124 124 123 123 124 124 127 131 132 126 115 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -54.8 -55.1 -54.5 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 11 11 9 10 9 10 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 43 47 43 43 48 49 52 53 57 55 56 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -46 -49 -54 -41 -33 -47 -36 -51 -47 -53 -54 -76 200 MB DIV 5 -1 -38 -21 9 -18 -17 -38 -10 -17 -3 -3 -15 LAND (KM) 739 719 711 719 735 747 741 683 544 400 273 143 57 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.6 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.6 28.1 28.9 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 66.0 66.9 67.8 68.6 69.3 70.4 71.8 73.2 74.6 76.1 77.6 79.2 80.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 41 41 36 35 30 28 31 48 45 52 46 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 4. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 30. 32. 33. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/18/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072009 FRED 09/18/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY