* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP162009 09/18/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 31 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 31 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 31 29 27 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 14 17 16 22 27 30 28 28 29 32 39 46 49 SHEAR DIR 239 241 220 226 237 237 249 254 253 240 237 229 241 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.4 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.9 24.3 23.4 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 142 137 131 125 124 119 114 110 104 95 88 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 43 41 42 39 38 36 33 32 32 30 26 24 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 6 6 4 3 3 2 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 71 56 43 35 16 -23 -21 -28 -38 -45 -50 -32 -34 200 MB DIV 2 -3 -5 10 1 -9 10 -19 -8 0 9 0 18 LAND (KM) 553 540 528 530 544 598 713 772 824 857 886 947 936 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.3 22.0 22.1 22.3 22.7 23.3 24.2 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.0 115.4 116.0 116.6 117.5 118.6 119.5 120.5 121.4 122.3 123.6 124.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -18. -23. -27. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -8. -12. -18. -25. -30. -39. -44. -50. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162009 MARTY 09/18/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162009 MARTY 09/18/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED