* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982009 09/18/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 40 44 45 44 40 35 30 23 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 40 44 45 44 40 35 30 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 34 37 39 39 37 34 31 27 22 SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 10 11 14 16 22 23 27 33 38 43 SHEAR DIR 35 46 77 121 149 176 219 224 239 241 248 242 256 SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.8 26.9 26.0 25.3 24.7 24.0 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 156 154 151 145 142 132 122 114 108 101 95 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 14 13 11 11 8 8 6 5 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 63 59 51 49 40 38 31 29 24 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -26 -25 -23 -23 -37 -46 -53 -57 -58 -56 -43 -30 200 MB DIV -2 4 11 5 -10 16 6 2 -2 -4 1 -18 -7 LAND (KM) 255 260 300 346 403 320 327 342 354 417 440 444 466 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 20.2 21.2 22.2 22.9 23.6 24.3 25.1 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.6 107.5 108.4 109.3 111.1 112.6 114.1 115.1 116.2 117.3 118.3 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 6 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 55 44 39 32 28 18 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 13. 20. 24. 26. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -5. -9. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 19. 20. 19. 15. 10. 5. -2. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982009 INVEST 09/18/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982009 INVEST 09/18/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED