* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/18/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 49 52 54 55 57 57 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 49 52 54 55 57 43 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 42 46 49 51 54 57 45 34 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 12 7 19 18 21 16 21 18 24 24 SHEAR DIR 26 11 7 4 344 304 287 302 312 313 299 293 284 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 144 144 144 146 148 153 154 148 140 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 126 126 125 125 126 126 131 133 127 119 119 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 11 11 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 50 49 47 51 54 52 53 55 57 55 58 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -43 -43 -28 -18 -35 -23 -30 -31 -46 -45 -49 -42 200 MB DIV -2 -34 -12 7 12 -12 -12 -18 -4 -6 8 -8 6 LAND (KM) 750 730 726 729 733 726 603 467 354 227 62 -60 -7 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.7 29.2 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 68.1 69.1 70.0 70.8 72.3 74.0 75.4 76.6 78.1 80.0 81.7 83.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 35 34 30 30 40 48 47 49 5 15 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27. 27. 26. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/18/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072009 FRED 09/18/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY