* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982009 09/18/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 28 33 37 41 43 43 42 40 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 28 33 37 41 43 43 42 40 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 34 36 38 38 37 35 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 7 3 6 10 13 13 21 20 25 21 SHEAR DIR 240 205 204 265 293 173 191 210 220 229 225 236 238 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 136 136 134 134 134 136 136 135 135 136 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 131 132 128 127 127 129 129 127 127 128 127 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 59 58 63 56 54 52 54 54 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 75 61 46 41 22 2 -8 -14 -12 0 -2 -6 -11 200 MB DIV -6 12 9 15 16 15 -11 -30 23 0 25 14 39 LAND (KM) 1577 1529 1484 1448 1418 1368 1300 1233 1203 1189 1118 1029 988 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 17.2 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 39.9 40.7 41.4 42.3 43.1 44.5 45.9 47.4 49.1 50.7 52.4 54.1 55.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 22 21 21 22 27 31 35 46 49 51 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 12. 16. 18. 18. 17. 15. 16. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982009 INVEST 09/18/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982009 INVEST 09/18/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY