* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/19/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 44 47 51 52 54 57 58 60 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 44 47 51 52 54 43 39 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 40 44 46 49 52 43 38 42 SHEAR (KT) 20 19 13 8 14 18 23 18 18 13 20 17 19 SHEAR DIR 14 15 9 360 297 302 286 303 306 331 305 310 281 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 144 145 146 151 155 157 154 153 153 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 125 125 126 128 130 133 135 133 132 134 130 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 11 11 11 9 10 9 10 9 10 8 11 700-500 MB RH 51 48 51 56 53 54 53 55 53 55 54 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -47 -35 -18 -19 -20 -18 -16 -30 -37 -31 -36 -21 200 MB DIV -39 -10 19 14 -18 -9 -34 -2 -6 -2 0 -17 9 LAND (KM) 742 733 730 728 731 664 505 356 218 80 -65 35 133 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.2 69.0 69.8 70.6 71.4 73.3 75.0 76.5 77.9 79.4 81.1 83.1 85.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 35 31 27 32 54 52 17 61 15 4 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 21. 22. 24. 27. 28. 30. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/19/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072009 FRED 09/19/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY