* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982009 09/19/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 33 36 39 40 40 40 38 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 29 33 36 39 40 40 40 38 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 34 34 34 32 31 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 6 7 12 11 13 17 23 20 27 26 SHEAR DIR 203 195 194 188 174 204 206 249 233 237 233 239 243 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 135 134 134 134 134 135 134 134 134 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 131 129 128 126 127 127 127 126 125 124 123 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -55.1 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 64 62 59 60 63 59 61 54 56 52 54 49 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 9 8 8 8 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 68 51 41 25 16 6 1 4 9 14 6 -6 -17 200 MB DIV 19 17 12 17 28 -4 -12 -7 0 30 18 33 9 LAND (KM) 1557 1515 1478 1451 1428 1374 1313 1259 1245 1254 1188 1168 1188 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.5 18.5 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 40.4 41.2 42.0 42.8 43.6 44.9 46.3 47.9 49.5 51.0 52.4 53.6 54.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 23 23 22 24 28 30 39 49 51 49 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. 13. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982009 INVEST 09/19/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982009 INVEST 09/19/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY