* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982009 09/19/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 36 39 39 39 38 38 40 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 36 39 39 39 38 38 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 32 32 31 30 28 28 SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 5 7 6 17 15 23 21 29 22 27 SHEAR DIR 230 226 248 206 210 245 236 247 246 235 241 244 258 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 134 134 134 135 134 134 134 134 136 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 129 128 127 126 128 127 126 126 125 125 124 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -55.0 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 61 60 59 56 55 54 55 52 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 42 22 9 -2 -12 -18 -6 2 6 4 2 -16 200 MB DIV 27 17 27 37 3 0 -25 25 12 41 13 42 13 LAND (KM) 1446 1411 1382 1362 1340 1285 1233 1213 1203 1163 1114 1130 1099 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.7 17.6 18.8 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 41.9 42.7 43.5 44.2 44.9 46.3 47.6 49.1 50.6 52.1 53.4 54.5 55.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 19 21 23 28 30 35 46 51 50 48 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 15. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982009 INVEST 09/19/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982009 INVEST 09/19/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED