* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982009 09/19/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 38 40 41 38 35 31 26 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 28 33 35 36 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 25 31 30 31 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 2 9 15 19 28 31 33 40 44 49 58 58 69 SHEAR DIR 241 248 234 230 235 251 245 252 260 264 253 255 253 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.9 29.5 30.3 30.3 29.8 29.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 149 147 146 145 151 157 167 168 162 162 153 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -54.2 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 12 13 10 9 7 8 7 7 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 67 65 60 62 59 55 50 45 46 50 52 54 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -20 -32 -31 -27 -40 -30 -16 46 27 22 -7 -20 200 MB DIV 24 0 7 8 -4 4 6 14 9 -3 26 24 16 LAND (KM) 245 296 191 84 29 -23 10 64 3 -143 -326 -506 -668 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.4 21.3 22.2 23.0 24.6 25.6 26.2 26.5 26.7 27.2 28.6 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.6 109.3 109.9 110.4 111.1 110.9 110.6 109.4 107.8 105.8 104.7 103.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 7 4 4 6 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 26 23 2 35 6 29 47 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -5. -14. -24. -33. -41. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 15. 16. 13. 10. 6. 1. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982009 INVEST 09/19/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982009 INVEST 09/19/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY