* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/19/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 47 51 54 56 57 58 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 47 51 54 56 57 39 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 37 39 42 46 49 53 38 31 SHEAR (KT) 14 10 19 22 20 21 16 19 13 21 23 24 25 SHEAR DIR 7 344 300 303 313 286 288 295 306 295 311 308 307 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 144 144 144 149 152 152 147 142 141 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 123 124 124 123 128 130 129 124 119 118 120 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 52 56 53 53 52 50 54 52 53 55 58 57 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 5 4 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -29 -21 -32 -20 -5 -16 -23 -32 -17 -12 -6 4 200 MB DIV 0 11 -24 -7 -8 -22 2 -6 4 0 1 -10 -26 LAND (KM) 764 769 777 768 747 624 488 353 238 109 17 -68 -13 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 69.8 70.4 71.0 71.8 72.5 73.8 75.2 76.7 78.1 79.5 80.7 81.7 82.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 30 30 31 38 48 46 46 45 4 18 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/19/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072009 FRED 09/19/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY