* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982009 09/19/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 37 39 41 40 39 37 36 36 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 37 39 41 40 39 37 36 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 33 33 32 30 28 26 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 8 10 12 9 18 19 28 22 29 31 30 SHEAR DIR 213 193 185 216 222 237 254 247 250 246 252 252 249 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 134 134 134 136 135 135 134 134 135 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 128 127 126 127 128 127 126 125 124 124 124 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 59 64 63 62 62 54 55 52 55 51 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 38 20 10 0 -4 -12 -11 0 3 -3 -7 -17 -30 200 MB DIV 14 13 34 19 1 -13 -2 15 33 11 32 17 27 LAND (KM) 1461 1431 1407 1385 1363 1297 1243 1218 1221 1172 1136 1154 1131 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.9 19.0 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 41.8 42.6 43.4 44.1 44.7 46.1 47.6 49.2 50.7 52.2 53.4 54.4 55.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 20 21 23 27 30 36 46 52 52 48 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 15. 14. 12. 11. 11. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982009 INVEST 09/19/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982009 INVEST 09/19/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY