* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP162009 09/19/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 32 31 32 38 41 43 40 41 36 38 38 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 252 246 239 248 254 260 242 249 250 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.1 23.6 23.3 23.1 22.9 22.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 121 117 113 109 103 98 95 92 89 86 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 36 33 32 32 29 29 27 24 24 27 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 24 11 15 14 -7 -21 -51 -62 -82 -68 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -7 -7 -9 -5 -24 1 -18 -7 6 27 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 578 637 678 741 812 974 1129 1279 1440 1486 1504 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.8 24.3 24.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.3 119.2 120.3 121.3 123.2 125.1 126.8 128.7 130.1 130.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 5 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -18. -27. -34. -40. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -17. -25. -37. -45. -51. -58. -62. -63. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162009 MARTY 09/19/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162009 MARTY 09/19/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED