* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982009 09/19/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 41 40 38 34 32 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 28 33 36 32 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 24 27 27 25 26 26 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 8 15 17 28 27 31 35 35 46 43 49 53 70 SHEAR DIR 207 221 221 236 246 238 252 250 259 256 262 251 264 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.4 29.0 30.0 30.4 30.4 30.2 29.9 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 146 146 144 146 152 162 167 167 165 164 161 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 11 8 11 5 11 5 10 5 9 2 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 61 60 55 50 45 46 45 49 51 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -32 -34 -30 -36 -38 -32 2 21 16 17 -4 -11 200 MB DIV -6 0 17 10 0 0 -2 0 -13 -2 0 7 1 LAND (KM) 297 249 134 51 37 -5 30 61 -9 -58 -128 -290 -503 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.6 25.4 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.9 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.2 109.8 110.3 110.7 110.9 110.7 110.0 109.2 108.1 107.2 106.0 104.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 8 5 4 4 4 5 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 24 13 5 1 16 44 20 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -7. -16. -25. -33. -40. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 15. 13. 10. 7. 1. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982009 INVEST 09/19/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982009 INVEST 09/19/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED