* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982009 09/19/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 43 44 44 43 42 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 43 44 44 43 42 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 36 36 35 34 33 SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 9 7 10 13 17 18 26 24 20 19 SHEAR DIR 293 219 250 252 234 249 265 246 248 239 232 243 251 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 134 134 134 134 134 133 134 134 135 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 127 127 126 126 126 126 124 125 123 123 123 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 -55.3 -55.7 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 62 64 63 63 62 61 57 56 54 52 49 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 12 0 -7 -13 -16 -8 0 2 -3 -15 -37 -42 200 MB DIV 35 30 16 7 21 -8 39 15 41 1 45 10 19 LAND (KM) 1426 1406 1389 1367 1344 1288 1249 1248 1266 1252 1251 1295 1283 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.6 17.7 18.9 20.1 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 43.2 43.8 44.5 45.1 46.4 47.9 49.2 50.6 51.8 52.9 53.5 53.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 20 22 23 28 30 37 46 53 48 39 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 19. 18. 17. 19. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982009 INVEST 09/19/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982009 INVEST 09/19/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY