* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP162009 09/19/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 30 33 35 37 38 41 35 37 38 53 37 44 N/A SHEAR DIR 251 245 240 249 256 260 243 242 269 268 262 259 N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.5 24.0 23.9 24.0 23.8 23.9 23.8 23.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 116 113 109 107 103 102 102 100 101 98 94 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -54.4 -54.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 33 32 33 30 29 28 25 25 22 25 23 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 7 1 1 -8 -7 -28 -36 -41 -51 -62 -75 N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -18 -16 -4 -5 -19 -15 -36 -10 0 12 -36 N/A LAND (KM) 646 715 782 842 906 1089 1307 1512 1689 1820 1898 1887 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.0 22.9 22.5 22.4 22.4 22.6 22.9 23.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.6 120.6 121.5 122.3 124.4 126.6 128.8 130.7 133.0 134.5 134.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 5 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -15. -24. -34. -40. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -7. -15. -25. -34. -41. -50. -57. -61. -62. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162009 MARTY 09/19/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162009 MARTY 09/19/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY