* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982009 09/19/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 30 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 30 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 13 15 23 27 27 35 40 43 43 53 57 71 72 SHEAR DIR 215 208 224 238 234 240 250 257 263 255 257 253 260 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.8 25.9 25.0 24.4 24.5 27.9 30.1 29.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 140 136 130 120 110 104 106 142 167 163 124 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 11 9 9 7 7 4 4 2 5 4 8 700-500 MB RH 59 55 53 53 48 47 46 37 36 33 37 45 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -25 -21 -30 -39 -45 -48 -18 -1 3 5 2 -22 200 MB DIV 13 23 9 1 6 -4 3 7 -26 -3 11 8 25 LAND (KM) 266 206 189 197 189 134 151 142 53 -44 -22 -276 -578 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.5 23.1 24.0 24.8 25.5 26.3 27.0 28.2 30.0 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.8 111.5 112.1 112.6 113.3 113.8 114.0 113.8 112.5 110.8 108.9 106.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 5 8 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 20 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 26 79 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 22. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -10. -19. -29. -39. -48. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -7. -13. -17. -21. -28. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982009 INVEST 09/19/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982009 INVEST 09/19/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY