* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/20/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 28 31 33 36 38 39 41 42 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 28 31 33 36 38 39 41 42 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 22 23 24 25 27 30 32 33 34 SHEAR (KT) 21 27 24 21 24 19 19 16 20 22 28 34 37 SHEAR DIR 314 306 307 301 297 304 312 315 305 301 297 299 282 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 140 141 142 146 150 146 141 138 137 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 119 119 119 122 124 127 121 116 112 111 109 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 -54.4 -55.0 -55.2 -56.0 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 7 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 52 51 53 51 54 56 58 54 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -43 -34 -11 -15 -25 -30 -35 -13 -7 -14 0 -1 200 MB DIV -17 -12 -2 -6 -39 -12 -15 6 -4 0 -18 8 0 LAND (KM) 881 894 864 807 750 622 496 358 249 195 150 129 125 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 70.2 70.8 71.4 72.0 72.6 74.0 75.5 77.0 78.3 79.1 79.6 79.8 79.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 6 4 3 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 32 29 29 30 34 45 50 51 40 25 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 19. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/20/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072009 FRED 09/20/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY