* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982009 09/20/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 34 35 35 36 37 39 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 34 35 35 36 37 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 26 25 25 26 SHEAR (KT) 11 11 14 11 11 15 14 23 21 23 20 20 19 SHEAR DIR 242 245 252 269 252 263 242 251 238 243 243 255 253 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 134 134 134 132 133 134 134 135 136 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 126 126 126 125 125 123 123 123 122 122 121 121 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 -55.8 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 60 64 59 59 52 51 49 53 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 22 7 1 -2 -4 0 8 5 5 -3 -11 -36 -39 200 MB DIV 31 11 7 24 14 13 17 23 13 24 24 11 -4 LAND (KM) 1424 1401 1379 1360 1345 1318 1318 1332 1315 1312 1371 1381 1455 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.5 17.1 18.0 19.1 20.3 21.4 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 43.8 44.5 45.1 45.8 46.4 47.7 49.0 50.2 51.3 52.3 52.8 52.9 52.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 25 27 28 34 37 45 53 42 37 35 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 14. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982009 INVEST 09/20/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982009 INVEST 09/20/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY