* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982009 09/20/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 15 21 24 24 31 38 41 43 43 50 54 71 71 SHEAR DIR 232 247 245 234 230 246 249 260 254 257 251 257 256 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.2 24.6 24.4 24.1 25.0 29.9 30.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 133 128 122 112 105 102 100 112 164 166 143 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 9 9 9 5 7 2 5 2 4 3 9 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 51 50 47 39 36 31 32 35 42 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -21 -30 -41 -46 -57 -51 -9 1 1 -10 -11 -11 200 MB DIV 23 12 4 12 1 -6 -13 4 -25 -2 0 6 14 LAND (KM) 210 205 206 174 135 143 174 156 121 14 57 -184 -467 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.3 23.9 24.6 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.6 28.1 29.6 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.8 112.4 112.8 113.2 113.7 114.0 114.1 114.2 113.6 112.1 110.1 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 3 2 2 3 7 11 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 16 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 18. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -11. -22. -32. -41. -51. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -14. -22. -25. -30. -34. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982009 INVEST 09/20/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982009 INVEST 09/20/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY