* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/20/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 30 33 33 32 32 33 33 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 30 33 33 32 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 17 18 19 20 21 21 22 25 26 SHEAR (KT) 28 25 25 21 16 20 22 26 28 35 39 36 39 SHEAR DIR 306 305 308 312 314 298 302 304 316 326 322 305 307 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 141 141 145 150 146 142 140 141 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 119 119 120 124 127 122 119 117 117 119 119 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 9 9 7 9 7 10 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 55 51 50 47 49 49 52 55 54 54 58 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -25 -9 -25 -25 -18 -36 -7 -15 -15 -20 -11 -14 200 MB DIV -3 -2 -24 -22 -2 -2 1 1 -19 -39 -16 -27 -3 LAND (KM) 876 815 756 696 637 509 361 249 151 43 -49 -50 -35 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.3 72.0 72.6 73.3 73.9 75.4 77.0 78.3 79.5 80.6 81.5 82.1 82.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 5 5 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 27 28 28 33 46 50 46 5 19 21 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 21. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 5. 1. -3. -7. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 13. 12. 12. 13. 13. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/20/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072009 FRED 09/20/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY