* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982009 09/20/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 20 23 26 30 31 34 37 41 44 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 20 23 26 30 31 34 37 41 44 V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 SHEAR (KT) 22 19 16 18 19 15 22 19 22 20 22 22 18 SHEAR DIR 259 266 271 266 261 225 231 227 239 233 247 255 269 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 133 133 133 134 134 135 135 136 138 139 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 124 124 123 123 124 123 123 122 122 123 122 122 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.5 -55.8 -56.1 -56.3 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 57 58 62 61 60 61 56 56 51 55 50 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 -3 -3 2 17 19 13 -4 -13 -27 -20 -31 200 MB DIV 11 18 16 5 34 41 38 24 27 34 17 12 13 LAND (KM) 1407 1404 1406 1404 1405 1432 1425 1404 1415 1376 1374 1427 1488 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.6 22.8 24.1 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 45.5 46.1 46.7 47.4 48.0 49.2 50.4 51.5 52.4 53.0 53.4 53.4 53.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 31 31 35 38 41 42 33 36 34 34 31 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 10. 11. 14. 17. 21. 24. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982009 INVEST 09/20/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982009 INVEST 09/20/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY