* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982009 09/20/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 21 22 29 34 35 47 46 46 55 51 43 34 40 SHEAR DIR 255 244 234 239 247 245 251 243 251 243 264 269 267 SST (C) 27.5 27.0 26.1 25.7 25.2 24.3 23.9 23.5 23.2 22.7 21.9 21.2 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 123 118 113 103 99 94 91 86 78 72 109 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 6 5 6 3 4 1 3 0 3 0 700-500 MB RH 57 56 50 48 49 43 41 35 36 34 34 39 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -40 -47 -55 -59 -65 -36 -26 -1 -5 8 7 4 200 MB DIV 6 14 -2 5 -11 -12 8 -8 -9 7 0 -17 1 LAND (KM) 296 288 257 251 258 288 276 260 236 208 187 101 -10 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.4 23.0 23.4 23.8 24.6 25.1 25.8 26.4 27.2 28.0 28.7 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.3 113.9 114.3 114.6 115.2 115.8 116.4 116.8 117.0 116.9 115.8 114.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 7 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -6. -15. -28. -39. -47. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -8. -17. -28. -37. -45. -50. -53. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982009 INVEST 09/20/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982009 INVEST 09/20/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED