* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/20/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 27 31 33 32 29 28 28 26 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 24 27 31 33 32 29 28 26 26 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 17 18 19 20 21 21 20 22 25 SHEAR (KT) 24 25 24 19 17 17 20 25 34 47 44 47 48 SHEAR DIR 296 300 303 311 301 308 303 315 325 330 320 312 314 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.7 28.1 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 139 141 146 147 140 134 131 129 135 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 117 118 120 124 124 116 111 108 106 112 118 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 51 48 46 45 47 47 55 55 57 60 59 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -22 -36 -33 -19 -42 -26 -27 -11 -9 -9 -1 -12 200 MB DIV -16 -15 -12 -10 -11 -5 13 -29 -10 -18 -15 -31 -17 LAND (KM) 800 761 724 669 608 460 338 239 147 68 6 -45 -71 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.4 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 71.8 72.4 73.0 73.7 74.4 76.0 77.5 78.8 79.8 80.6 81.2 81.6 81.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 24 24 25 37 45 44 24 3 1 14 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 5. 1. -5. -9. -13. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 12. 9. 8. 8. 6. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/20/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072009 FRED 09/20/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY