* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982009 09/20/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 19 21 23 24 27 28 33 37 43 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 19 21 23 24 27 28 33 37 43 V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 22 20 23 23 17 24 23 21 19 22 19 20 20 SHEAR DIR 267 273 277 273 258 243 241 241 250 251 246 252 252 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 134 133 133 134 134 135 137 138 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 126 126 124 123 125 123 124 123 123 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -55.3 -55.7 -56.1 -56.3 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 58 62 61 60 61 57 55 52 52 48 48 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -5 -10 -11 -6 2 13 5 0 -24 -20 -34 -37 200 MB DIV 17 15 10 33 57 32 67 2 32 0 30 0 36 LAND (KM) 1345 1324 1309 1299 1290 1306 1220 1183 1173 1096 1057 1094 1173 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.5 19.4 20.5 21.6 22.9 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 46.4 47.2 47.9 48.7 49.4 50.7 52.1 53.4 54.6 55.5 56.2 56.4 56.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 34 36 39 49 53 50 45 47 45 44 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 13. 17. 23. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982009 INVEST 09/20/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982009 INVEST 09/20/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY