* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982009 09/20/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 22 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 15 23 33 34 36 41 48 56 53 60 51 63 54 SHEAR DIR 232 221 230 244 244 247 242 246 253 246 252 240 245 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.5 26.0 25.6 24.7 24.2 23.6 22.8 25.1 30.1 30.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 127 121 117 107 102 96 88 113 166 168 157 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 7 6 7 5 5 3 4 3 5 5 8 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 52 48 46 43 36 38 36 41 46 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -46 -50 -52 -49 -47 -28 10 14 14 6 4 -13 200 MB DIV 25 11 10 10 5 9 -5 12 0 -4 0 14 9 LAND (KM) 343 327 293 281 280 293 296 223 121 -39 44 -176 -511 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.0 23.4 24.1 24.7 25.5 26.3 27.2 28.1 29.1 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.5 113.9 114.3 114.6 115.1 115.5 115.5 115.0 113.6 111.8 109.3 106.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 6 8 10 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 11. 15. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -5. -16. -28. -41. -50. -58. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -7. -16. -26. -36. -39. -42. -43. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982009 INVEST 09/20/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982009 INVEST 09/20/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY